Application of machine learning algorithms to predict 30-day hospital readmission following cement augmentation for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures.

Objective: Osteoporosis is a common skeletal disease that greatly increases the risk of pathologic fractures and accounts for approximately 700,000 vertebral compression fractures (VCFs) annually in the United States. Cement augmentation procedures such as balloon kyphoplasty (KP) and percutaneous vertebroplasty (VP) have demonstrated efficacy in the treatment of VCFs, however, some studies report rates of readmission as high as 10.8% following such procedures. The purpose of this study was to employ Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to predict 30-day hospital readmission following cement augmentation procedures for the treatment of VCFs using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database. Methods: ACS-NSQIP was queried to identify patients undergoing either KP or VP from 2011 to 2014. Three ML algorithms were constructed and tasked with predicting post-operative readmissions within this cohort of patients. Results: Postoperative pneumonia, ASA Class 2 designation, age, partially-dependent functional status, and a history of smoking were independently identified as highly predictive of readmission by all ML algorithms. Among these variables postoperative pneumonia (p < 0.01), ASA Class 2 designation (p < 0.01), age (p = 0.002), and partially-dependent functional status (p < 0.01) were found to be statistically significant. Predictions were generated with an average AUC value of 0.757 and an average accuracy of 80.5%. Conclusions: Postoperative pneumonia, ASA Class 2 designation, partially-dependent functional status, and age are perioperative variables associated with 30-day readmission following cement augmentation procedures. The use of ML allows for quantification of the relative contributions of these variables toward producing readmission.

Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality Following Vertebral Fracture Fixation in Patients With Ankylosing Spondylitis or Diffuse Idiopathic Skeletal Hyperostosis: Machine Learning Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis (DISH) are distinct pathological entities that similarly increase the risk of vertebral fractures. Such fractures can be clinically devastating and frequently portend significant neurological injury, thus making their prevention a critical focus. Of particular significance, spinal fractures in patients with AS or DISH carry a considerable risk of mortality, with reports on 1-year injury-related deaths ranging from 24% to 33%. As such, the purpose of this study was to conduct machine learning (ML) analysis to predict postoperative mortality in patients with AS or DISH using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP-NIS) database. METHODS: HCUP-NIS was queried to identify adult patients carrying a diagnosis of AS or DISH who were admitted for spinal fractures and underwent subsequent fusion or corpectomy between 2016 and 2018. Predictions of in-hospital mortality in this cohort were then generated by three independent ML algorithms. RESULTS: An in-hospital mortality rate of 5.40% was observed in our selected population, including a rate of 6.35% in patients with AS, 2.81% in patients with DISH, and 8.33% in patients with both diagnoses. Increasing age, hypertension with end-organ complications, spinal cord injury, and cervical spinal fractures each carried considerable predictive importance across the algorithms utilized in our analysis. Predictions were generated with an average area under the curve of 0.758. CONCLUSIONS: This study's application of ML algorithms to predict in-hospital mortality among patients with AS or DISH identified a number of clinical risk factors relevant to this outcome. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: These findings may serve to provide physicians with an awareness of risk factors for in-hospital mortality and, subsequently, guide management and shared decision-making among patients with AS or DISH.

Accounting for age in prediction of discharge destination following elective lumbar fusion: a supervised machine learning approach.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: The number of elective spinal fusion procedures performed each year continues to grow, making risk factors for post-operative complications following this procedure increasingly clinically relevant. Nonhome discharge (NHD) is of particular interest due to its associations with increased costs of care and rates of complications. Notably, increased age has been found to influence rates of NHD. PURPOSE: To identify aged-adjusted risk factors for nonhome discharge following elective lumbar fusion through the utilization of Machine Learning-generated predictions within stratified age groupings. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective Database Study. PATIENT SAMPLE: The American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database years 2008 to 2018. OUTCOME MEASURES: Postoperative discharge destination. METHODS: ACS-NSQIP was queried to identify adult patients undergoing elective lumbar spinal fusion from 2008 to 2018. Patients were then stratified into the following age ranges: 30 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years, and ≥65 years. These groups were then analyzed by eight ML algorithms, each tasked with predicting post-operative discharge destination. RESULTS: Prediction of NHD was performed with average AUCs of 0.591, 0.681, and 0.693 for those aged 30 to 44, 45 to 64, and ≥65 years respectively. In patients aged 30 to 44, operative time (p<.001), African American/Black race (p=.003), female sex (p=.002), ASA class three designation (p=.002), and preoperative hematocrit (p=.002) were predictive of NHD. In ages 45 to 64, predictive variables included operative time, age, preoperative hematocrit, ASA class two or class three designation, insulin-dependent diabetes, female sex, BMI, and African American/Black race all with p<.001. In patients ≥65 years, operative time, adult spinal deformity, BMI, insulin-dependent diabetes, female sex, ASA class four designation, inpatient status, age, African American/Black race, and preoperative hematocrit were predictive of NHD with p<.001. Several variables were distinguished as predictive for only one age group including ASA Class two designation in ages 45 to 64 and adult spinal deformity, ASA class four designation, and inpatient status for patients ≥65 years. CONCLUSIONS: Application of ML algorithms to the ACS-NSQIP dataset identified a number of highly predictive and age-adjusted variables for NHD. As age is a risk factor for NHD following spinal fusion, our findings may be useful in both guiding perioperative decision-making and recognizing unique predictors of NHD among specific age groups.

Analysis of reasons for medical malpractice litigation due to laminectomy.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify the incidence and characteristics of malpractice lawsuits pertaining to laminectomy performed either as a stand-alone operation or concurrent with another procedure by querying the Westlaw Edge and VerdictSearch databases. Malpractice claims analysis is performed by several medical specialties to provide insight into patient values, methods to improve quality of care, and risk factors for litigation pertaining to specific procedures or treatments. METHODS: Westlaw and VerdictSearch were queried using the keywords "laminectomy" and "spine." Claims were reviewed, with the inclusion criteria defined as a case filed between 2000 and 2022 that involved the plaintiff's basis of litigation resting on a claim of medical malpractice due to laminectomy. Additional collected data included the case date, verdict ruling, state or federal location of the filed claim, sustained injuries, and payment or settlement amount. RESULTS: After review of 4732 cases, 201 were identified as malpractice claims due to laminectomy. The most common reasons for litigation were delayed or denied treatment (n = 106), procedural errors (n = 38), inadequate management of postlaminectomy syndrome (n = 26), and incorrect procedural selection (n = 14). Regarding the verdict ruling, 47.3% (n = 95) of cases ruled in favor of the defendant, 9.0% (n = 18) resulted in a mixed ruling, 15.9% (n = 32) ruled in favor of the plaintiff, and 9.5% (n = 19) were resolved with an out-of-court settlement. An average payment of $4,530,277 resulted from the cases that ruled in favor of the plaintiff, while out-of-court settlements yielded an average payment of $1,193,146. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that there are several well-documented risk factors for malpractice claims attributed to laminectomy. The study findings suggest that prompt and accurate diagnosis, coordination of care, timely referral for surgical intervention, and understanding of the indications versus limitations of conservative therapy may help to mitigate the risk of litigation associated with laminectomy.

Use of random forest machine learning algorithm to predict short term outcomes following posterior cervical decompression with instrumented fusion.

Random Forest (RF) is a widely used machine learning algorithm that can be utilized for identification of patient characteristics important for outcome prediction. Posterior cervical decompression with instrumented fusion (PCDF) is a procedure for the management of cervical spondylosis, cervical spinal stenosis, and degenerative disorders that can cause cervical myelopathy or radiculopathy. An RF algorithm was employed to predict and describe length of stay (LOS), readmission, reoperation, transfusion, and infection rates following elective PCDF using The American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database 2008 through 2018. The RF algorithm was tasked with determining the importance of independent clinical variables in predicting our outcomes of interest and importance of each variable based on the reduction in the Gini index. Application of an RF algorithm to the ACS-NSQIP database yielded a highly predictive set of patient characteristics and perioperative events for five outcomes of interest related to elective PCDF. These variables included postoperative infection, increased age, BMI, operative time, and LOS, and decreased preoperative hematocrit and white blood cell count. Risk factors that were predictive for rate of reoperation, readmission, hospital length of stay, transfusion requirement, and post-operative infection were identified with AUC values of 0.781, 0.791, 0.781, 0.902, and 0.724 respectively. Utilization of these findings may assist in risk analysis during the perioperative period and may influence clinical or surgical decision-making.